Predicted Record: 33-49
Team Roster
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Solomon Alabi
David Anderson
Marcus Banks
Leandro Barbosa
Andrea Bargnani
Jose Calderon
Ed Davis
DeMar Derozan
Joey Dorsey
Ronald Dupree
Reggie Evans
Jarrett Jack
Amir Johnson
Linas Klezia
Sonny Weems
Julian Wright
Coach: Jay Triano
General Manager: Bryan Colangelo
Looking at the above roster and my wins predictions, readers could easily say I am blinded by loyalty. Most think that there is no way the Raptors can win that many games. My argument is not only can they reach 33 wins, I think they could win even more and push for a 7th or 8th playoff spot.
The first reason I think the Raptors will do well is the exact same reason people think they will do poorly. Chris Bosh is gone. Basketball is a team sport, and having a star player being the focal point, at all times, can sometimes do more harm than good. Chris Bosh's 20 points and 10 rebounds have relocated to the Miami Heat. What this does is give the Raptors an opportunity to move the ball around a lot more instead of dumping it off to Chris, watching him go 1 on 1 15ft from the basket. True, his jump shot was reliable and when close the basket, points or fouls would usually be the offensive result. But that left 4 other capable players never getting into rhythm. Capable scorers no longer need to worry about being scolded for not handing it over to CB4, making every play less predictable. Dirk Nowitzki made a comment after a 110-88 loss against the Raptors in January, commenting how impressed he was by Andrea Bargnani's talent. He went on about how he had no idea Andrea was so mobile and had such range. Bargnani shot 9-17 for 22 points that night. Why is that? Well it's simple, he got the ball more often. Raptors had 5 players in double digits combining for 71 points, Dallas had 4 combining for 64. Star players keep you in it, team play wins games.
The 2nd reason I think the Raptors can do well, is because of last years supporting cast and this year's new additions. Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon, Jarett Jack, DeMar Derozan, Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems are all returning to the court for Toronto. Those who watch Raptors basketball, go through highlights or box scores, know that Bargnani can make a big difference with consistent play. However, Derozan and Weems did not get nearly enough playing time based on their performances last year. Dominating this year's NBA Summer League should be the final sway for coach Triano to give these guys major minutes. Both players are quick to the basket, can finish strong, and are more than able to hit mid-range or even 3 point shots. For the up-tempo style of this team, players like these must be involved in the offense. Calderon and Jack will need to maintain or increase their 11 point and 6 assists average to keep the Raptors in games. And finally, I look to Amir Johnson, who will get more playing time, to increase from 6 points and 4 rebounds per game by getting better position under basket, less fouls and getting tip-ins from the many fast break lay ups this team is sure to take.
Of all the new comers, Leandro Barbosa and Linas Klezia have me really excited. Barbosa is a 7 year veteran who had a great run (pun intended) with the Phoenix Suns. His career average of 12 points per game is more than welcome in Toronto. His burst of speed and fearlessness when driving to the basket can get a lot teams in foul trouble, not to mention, force help defense leaving other players open for shots. Coming from a team that shot the ball in 6 seconds or less during possessions, on one of the highest scoring teams in the league, now with the Raptors who were 4th in scoring in 2009-10, this is a great pick up.
To be honest, most of my Linas Klezia memories are form this years FIBA Championship (which I covered in earlier posts). I kept a close eye on this often overlooked tournament over the summer and took the opportunity to watch Klezia in action. A 3rd place finish for Lithuania was made possible by Klezia's amazing play throughout the entire tournament. He has a smooth jump shot with range to match based on what I saw, and I can't wait to see him back in the NBA after a few years playing internationally. The attitude towards international play is that NBA bench players can score in bundles over seas, because the competition is weaker and teammates are no where near as good as in the US. The number of skilled players, number of active players and media attention is no doubt overshadowed by the NBA, but that should not leave us ignoring the fundamental talents of basketball players that don't include high flying dunks and sport center highlights. Linas Klezia will have a lot of people regretting the fact they underestimated his abilities. In his 4 years with the Denver Nuggets, he scored just under 10 points per game with about 20 minutes of playing time. It's safe to assume that his playing time will increase this year along with his points.
My 3rd reason is all about Coach Jay Triano. Jay Triano just came off of a Gold Medal run in the above mentioned FIBA Championship with team USA. To have Triano out there with the best coaches, among them future Hall of Famer Mike Krzyzewski, coaching a US roster of the best young talent the NBA has to offer, you couldn't ask for more during an off-season. As a coach, who I feel was pinned into a corner, more often than not, forced to keep Hedo Turkgoglu in the line up and running everything through Bosh, he now has a chance to run an all around offense with more players capable of stepping up each night. Some say you need to have an identifiable All-Star to win games, and in some cases that is true, but if that is all you have, your only 1 injury away from a complete meltdown. Triano knows last year's defense was terrible and will no doubt be stressing that for the rest of the 2010-2011 season. However, I think he can now run plays that involve the entire team and give players the playing time needed to give them wins.
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