With Round 2 of the 2013 NBA playoffs upon us I thought it might be fun to try and see what advantages certain teams have over their opponents and which ones could come out with a win. Don’t get me wrong, I have no plans of predicting the outcome of any series before a Game 1 tip-off, but will at least put my money where my mouth is on a per game basis.
Western Conference
Game 1: Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Advantage Grizzlies: The biggest advantage that Memphis has going into today’s game happens to be what they do better than anyone else in the NBA, defense. The Celtics, Bulls and Heat are all rightfully praised for their outstanding defense, however it is the Memphis Grizzlies that are 1st overall in the NBA this season when it comes to points allowed with 89.3 per game.
A big part of that amazing defense rests on the shoulders of the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and partner in crime Zach Randolph. Together they average 15.5 rebounds and mirror that with 38.1 points. Let’s not forget their presence alone forces those who would consider going for layups to think twice about running into one of two brick walls.
Expect Serge Ibaka who many felt was snubbed for the Defensive Player of the Year award and Kendrick Perkins who made those feelings public, to get tangled up under the basket often as these four beasts try to mark their territory today for the rest of the series. These playground tussles might favor Memphis as the Thunder don’t often get bullied down under when playing their preferred fast paced style of basketball.
Advantage Thunder: One has to find this series interesting once you realize the Grizzlies are 1st in points allowed per game and the Thunder are 3rd in the NBA when it comes to points per game with 105.7. With the loss of Russell Westbrook many assumed the Thunder’s scoring would drop dramatically when in fact it has remained relatively the same at 105.8 during their series against the Houston Rockets. The majority of the scoring predictably came at the hands of 2 time scoring champion Kevin Durant and it’s something he can no doubt continue to do as long as he stays out of harms way.
Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are likely one of the toughest inside duos in the NBA and there is no doubt that Kendrick Perkins ability to never be intimidated and Serge Ibaka’s 8.3 rebounds and 3 blocks per game will be ready for battle. Other Thunder cast members such as James Harden’s replacement Kevin Martin, Thabo Sefalosa, Russell Westbrooks substitute Reggie Jackson and even Nick Collison who performs well while staying off the stats sheet will all have to fight through the fatigue left over from the Houston series and help Kevin Durant protect home court advantage.
A motivating factor for Oklahoma besides keeping home court advantage should be the Grizzlies polar opposite rank of 27th in the NBA when it comes to points per game with 93.4, reminding Oklahoma although it’s not always the best or prettiest option, they can save their strength on the defensive end and simply try to outscore the Grizzlies.
Prediction: OKC wins Game 1
The Thunder were 34-7 at home this season, are known to feed off one of the best crowds in the NBA and have the best consistent pure scorer in the NBA with Kevin Durant. The Grizzlies may have been 24-17 on the road but are in no way interested in or intimidated by flash as they convincingly eliminated the Clippers and Lob City in 6 games.
The Thunder have a lot more to prove in Game 1 after the world saw them struggle with what should have been a sweep against the Rockets and I expect them to have figured out a solid game plan that doesn’t involve Westbrook. The Oklahoma bench also tends to perform better than opposing benches and are all decent shooters in their own right who seem to always find themselves open for an easy jumper.
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