With Round 2 of the 2013 NBA playoffs upon us I thought it might be fun to try and see what advantages teams have over their opponents and which ones could come out with a win. Don’t get me wrong, I have no plans of predicting the outcome of any series, but I will at least put my money where my mouth is on a per game basis.
Western Conference
Game 4: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors
Advantage Spurs: Although Andrew Bogut has been able to play quality minutes replacing the injured David Lee, Tim Duncan is still one of the most unguardable Power Forwards in the NBA. Carl Landry has been able to hold his own in the paint to a certain extent, the problem is that the Spurs still have two more big bodies in Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw to throw at the Warriors who have no answer after that.
Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are hands down one of the best backcourt duos in the NBA. Both extremely skilled at driving to the paint and scoring, kicking it out to the open man or taking perimeter jump shots. That versatility often leaves Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack on their heels often becoming victims of screens and picks, never quite sure of what to expect every time one of the two guards brings the ball up the court.
Coach Gregg Popovich knows his stars needs rest and this keeps his bench involved and experienced. A bench that is capable of protecting, increasing the lead and in some cases go on a scoring run is the key to success for any championship contender with its stars comprised of veterans. A full team commitment to defence and textbook basketball rounds of the long list of advantages the Spurs have over the Warriors.
Advantage Warriors: Let’s face it. The Warriors have been fun to watch all season and they have brought that type of uptempo high scoring basketball with them to the playoffs. The guard play of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack are making it difficult for the Spurs to keep up when they get hot from the outside, making them virtually unstoppable.
Harrison Barnes and Carl Landry are benefiting from forcing the Spurs’ Forwards and Centers to come out of the paint to defend them due to their mid range shooting, resulting in mismatches in favor of the Warriors’ guards. Unselfish play is also getting Golden State open shots and easy layups which all take place early in the shot clock not allowing the Spurs to get settled on defence.
The Warriors 3 point shooting is one of their greatest advantages as it can help them come back when down or build on a lead when they get hot and go on scoring runs late in games.
Prediction: Spurs win Game 4
Although fun to watch, it’s always hard for me to believe in a team littered with youth that plays fast pace basketball and choose to live and die by the 3 pointer during the playoffs. Whenever a team decides to play that style of basketball their wins are based on whether or not their shooters are hot on that particular night.
Even though 6 Warriors scored in double digits compared to the Spurs’ 4 players in Game 3, the Warriors shot 39% to the Spurs 50% who won that game by 102-92. The Spurs are efficient, disciplined, defensive, methodical, experienced and more than happy to let the Warriors gamble on their outside scoring to win the series. The reason being of course, the odds are in the Spurs favor.
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