Western Conference Finals: Mavericks vs Thunder

(left: Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant)

The Dallas Mavericks are coming off a huge 4 game sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers, but I'm sure we all know that by now.  The Oklahoma City Thunder came off their own big victory in game 7 against the surprise team of the 2011 playoffs, the Memphis Grizzlies, who knocked out the West's 1st place team, the Spurs.

Although this match up between the Mavericks and Thunder in the Western Conference Finals seems to be a simple case of young versus old, players starting their careers against players on their way out, it is much more than that.

At this point we can all accept that the new generation of players entering the NBA can perform at a much higher level than they were a few years ago, as proven by James, Wade and the youngest MVP ever Derrick Rose.  So the argument of young versus old is not all that counts, but still has to be taken into consideration.  It's now all about match ups, and below are the match ups I think that will make all the difference in this series.

1.  Stars:  Durant and Westbrook (OKC) Nowitzki and Kidd (DAL)

Although the Heat and Chicago series has the media in a frenzy, the match up of Kidd and Westbrook will be way more exciting to me than Bibby and Rose out East.  Jason Kidd has proven at 38 years of age he still has the ability score, pass and rebound with the best of the best.  His experience is rivaled only by a few active point guards in the league and even though Russell Westbrook is likely the future of scoring point guards, able to hit 3s as well as finish strong at the rim, Kidd's calm demeanor will trump the jitters Westbrook is sure to experience throughout this series. When Westbrook is not dribbling away the shot clock or looking for  his own shot, he has few options beyond Durant and Harden, whereas Kidd's list of available shooters is longer than most.

Dirk Nowitzki and Kevin Durant, in my opinion, will likely cancel each other out.  They are both the 1st scoring options for their respective teams and are sure to get up plenty of shots.  The difference will lie in which team's bench can come through when their star struggles.  Something the Mavericks have proven they can do, as shown in the Game 4 win against the Lakers where the Dallas bench out scored their starters.

EDGE: Dallas

2.  Tough Guys: Perkins, Ibaka, Sefalosha and Collison (OKC) Tyson Chanlder and Brendan Haywood (DAL)

I see this as no competition.  I in no way mean to undermine the toughness of the Dallas front line, and I am well aware the Mavericks are playing great defense as a whole, but when it comes to Oklahoma, I simply see Dallas at a disadvantage.  Dallas is averaging  29 defensive and 9 offensive rebounds whereas the Thunder are averaging 33 and 12. Oklahoma is also a shade better getting 6 steals and 8 blocks compared to the Mavericks 5 and 4.  Dallas admittedly handles the ball better  with 12 turnovers and 21 assists over Oklahoma's 14 turnovers and 17 assists.  But I still stand firm in my belief that the 4 OKC tough guys mentioned above will be able to control the rebounding game, protect the paint better and benefit from more second chance points via tip ins and put back slam dunks.

EDGE: Oklahoma City Thunder

3.  Team Effort

Relying on one or two star players during the regular season might be enough to win against below .500 teams, but this is the playoffs, that simply won't cut it.  This is where Dallas can run away with the series.  The playoffs is not so much about the stars as it is about the entire team.  There is a reason why names like Kerr,  Armstrong, Cartwright, Grant, Paxson and a number of other former Chicago Bulls champions can come to mind so easily, they were aware they were not the focus of the team but played as if they were.  When your starting 5 has an off night, it's up to the bench to step up to the challenge and keep the game within reach and even add to the lead or shut down the opponent defensively.  The Mavericks' have about 4 players averaging double digits while the Thunder only have 3 and the point drop off between the remaining players is huge.  Without Durant and Westbrook on the court the burden is on James Harden to score, which is not ideal.  2 time "6th Man" Jason Terry, Peja Stojakovic, J.J. Barea, Chandler and Marion will be too much for the Thunder bench to handle and will leave them struggling for answers throughout the series.

EDGE: Dallas

PREDICTION:Dallas

Even with the Thunder's tough guys bullying the Dallas offense, Nowitzki, Kidd and the superbly talented bench will prove to much for Oklahoma.  Whether Dallas is able to sweep them like they did the Lakers remains to be seen, but even with this prediction in favor of the Mavericks, don't expect the young Thunder to lay down and die.