Eastern Conference Finals: Bulls vs Heat

(left: Dwayne Wade and Derrick Rose)

This Sunday's Eastern Conference Game 1 of the Chicago Bulls vs the Miami Heat might not come with the same anticipation as the Heat vs Celtics match up did in Round 2, but it is definitely more meaningful as the winner of this series goes on to the NBA Finals.

Most people will agree that this 2011 playoffs has been the most unpredictable in years, so for those that think the only certainty is the Miami Heat's dominance, they need only look back a few weeks to perhaps humble their opinions.

The Atlanta Hawks knocked out the heavily favored Orlando Magic in 6 games after being swept by them the year before by embarrassing margins .  8th place Memphis Grizzlies also knocked out the 1st place San Antonio Spurs in 6 games leaving everyone, except Charles Barkley who predicted the Grizzlies win, stunned.  The Boston Celtics won only 1 game against the Heat losing in 5 games in Round 2, coming nowhere near the high expectations for that series.  And probably the biggest surprise is the 4 game sweep of last years champions the Lakers by the Dallas Mavericks leaving the sports world in shock.  As of today, the Grizzlies and Thunder are set to play the only deciding Game 7 of these playoffs so far this Sunday, another scenario most were not able to predict.

I thought the best way to preview and logically predict the outcome was with 3 simple facts that will ultimately decide the winner.  Stars players Rose, Wade and James.  Tough guys Noah, Boozer and Bosh.  Last but not least, supporting cast.

1.  Stars:  Rose (CHI), Dwayne Wade and Lebron James (MIA)

Current MVP Derrick Rose, former Champion and Finals MVP Dwayne Wade and 2-time MVP Lebron James pretty much says it all.  During the playoffs the Heat duo have combined for an average of 52 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists.  Rose, who is the main scorer for the Bulls is averaging 28 points, 4 rebounds and 8 assists per game, not bad by any means.  The only thing that will add to the Bulls woes is free throws.  All 3 players mentioned drive to basket like few other in the league and are often rewarded foul shots which not only make for easy points but get their opponents in the penalty bonus, which results in foul shots for any type of foul during play.  Wade and Lebron combined for 187 foul shot attempts making 145 of them during these playoffs. Rose currently sits at 102 foul shot attempts making 85 of them in what have been mostly close games for the Bulls.

EDGE: Heat

2.  Tough Guys: Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer (CHI) Chris Bosh (MIA)

Many would question my description of Bosh as a tough guy, but the point I'm trying to make is that these 3 players need to be tough to help their team.  Boozer and Noah who will often be matched up near or around Bosh have combined for an average of 20 points and 19 rebounds.  Bosh right now is putting up 16 points and 9 rebounds a game, which much like Rose, when put up against 2 opposing players floating around him, is not bad.  But Bosh will have a very hard time out rebounding an aggressive Noah while guarding an efficient shooter in Boozer.  True Ilgauskus and Anthony will have minutes, but neither can match up well against those 2.

EDGE: Bulls

3.  Team Effort

Here is the rundown.  The Bulls won all 3 meetings with the Heat during the regular season.  True, both teams are playing differently than they were then, but we can and always should learn from history.  In those 3 games the Bulls out rebounded, had more assists, hit more 3 pointers and hit more free throws than the Heat.  The only category the Bulls fell short were in foul shot attempts, and looking at the numbers I mentioned earlier, the reason is obvious.  Bulls starters average 75 points while the bench chips in with 21 of their own during these playoffs.  As for the Heat, the Big 3 score 68 points on average with 28 coming from the bench. Funny thing is, it equals to the exact same amount for both teams, 96 points.

EDGE: Tie

PREDICTION: Bulls

Even though stars Wade and James combined will out play Rose, tough guys Boozer and Noah will out play Bosh.  And as far as team effort goes, the team averages of 96 should not sit as the sole deciding factor, even though it does say a lot.  Watching the games on the other hand has shown that the Bulls supporting cast can and has come through in close situations, albeit against teams like the Pacers and Hawks.  Whereas the Heat took care of a team of a higher caliber in the Celtics.  All that considered, by Game 6 or 7 the Heat duo of Wade and James will be exhausted at the amount of minutes and reliance on them to score, which I think will make the ultimate difference.