Eastern Conf. Finals: Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

I’m glad fate has allowed the Heat and Pacers series to be tied 1-1 before I had a chance to share my thoughts on what many thought would be an easy trip to the NBA Finals for the Miami Heat. I’m glad because when I told many it would be closer than most expected they laughed. It’s common for many to spend hours making predictions and share opinions about matchups and then end with a comment that basically states it's up to LeBron James whether the Heat win or lose. The unfortunate thing about those types of closing statements is that it makes everything leading up to that statement irrelevant. Let’s not kid ourselves either, the Heat made a complete 180 degree turn since LeBron joined the roster. However the often criticized bench are the ones doing the little things that make LeBron’s greatness shine through even brighter or cause his efforts to be completely futile.

Aside from the Pacers’ coach Frank Vogel’s questionable decision to sit Roy Hibbert allowing James to score a Game 1 winning layup, fans, haters and everyone in between are about to learn that Indiana is as balanced an Eastern Conference team anyone could have asked for this post season.

Numbers don’t lie: Since the Voltron like formation of the Miami Heat trio, there has been no question they are the faces at the forefront of every victory. However there is more to it than just James, Wade and Bosh showing up to the gym and walking out with wins. During the Miami Heat’s 2010-2011 playoff run that ended with a Finals loss to the Dallas Mavericks, the Heat’s big 3 averaged 66.8 points while the rest of the team earned 36.7. In their 2011-2012 championship run James, Wade and Bosh scored 67.1 points with the remaining 39.9 coming from the rest of the team. Too small a margin to be noteworthy? Well consider this year’s stats which has the Heat trio averaging 53.2 points with the rest of the team chipping in with their highest output since 2010 with 49.3 points. From a team perspective and considering who makes up the remaining roster that is a huge improvement. That statistic could end up being the difference maker allowing the 3 Amigos an opportunity to rest longer than usual and perform at their highest level.

The Indiana Pacers on the other hand are the complete opposite in terms of how the team is built and performs. During this Pacers’ postseason Paul George, David West, Roy Hibbert and George Hill are averaging 66.4 points while the while their teammates do their share with 33.2 points. If you throw in the Pacers’ 78% Free Throw shooting versus the Heat’s 66.6% over the last 2 games, you begin to see that this series is far from over. Another noteworthy statistic is the Pacers ability to out rebounded the Heat so far 71 to 68 which plays a huge part when you consider both games were won by an average of 2.5 points. The Heat should consider themselves lucky in this category when you realize the Pacers were ranked 1st in rebounds compared to the last place Heat during the regular season.

Bottom Line: Whatever theories that exist about this series the truth is that both games were extremely close and one should expect this trend to continue. With most NBA teams top heavy it’s often easier for the Heat to wear out their opponents. In the case of the Pacers where there are far more players in need of wearing out, we could see ourselves with a Game 7 or even a first time Finals appearance since 2000 for the Indiana Pacers.

Miami Heat Check

The question everyone has been asking since the Miami Heat hoisted the trophy at the end of last season was ‘can they do it again’.

They have since added Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis to the team and left the remainder of the roster essentially untouched.

Lebron James is averaging 26 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists, Wade has 20 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists and Bosh is doing his part to share the load with 17 points and 7 rebounds. With the ‘Big 3’ rolling the Heat will go as far as they take them. Many still have the Heat as the sure fire bet to come out of the East and end up in the NBA Finals. It’s a pretty logical bet as long as they can get past the New York Knicks who are playing their best basketball in years lead by MVP candidate Carmelo Anthony.

With that being said, the playoffs and finals are months away and the Heat are currently 23-10 for the season. Out of 33 games only 7 of them were played against legitimate playoff contenders from both the Eastern and Western Conferences. Against those teams they went 4-3. To clarify my meaning of ‘playoff contenders’ I am referring to teams I truly believe could wind up NBA champions this year with either grind out, showtime, text book or fast break basketball along with a little bit of luck. The 7 games I am referring were those played against the Clippers (2), Knicks, Grizzlies, Spurs, Thunder and the Celtics. I added the Celtics more out of respect which I know I shouldn’t have, but should any upsets occur involving the Knicks or Heat the Celtics would be eagerly waiting to step in and take full advantage.

With the hype surrounding the team considerably less than it has been the last 2 years, fans may be upset about this but the Heat probably prefer it that way. With fewer nationally televised Heat games and the majority of TV time now going to the Clippers and Lakers many might forget how dangerous the Heat still are. Some might scratch their heads when the Heat lose to teams like the Wizards and Bucks but truth be told it would be a relatively easy playoff series to win should they meet in the playoffs and these losses should not be taken as signs of weakness. The issue with regular season games against lower ranked teams is that losing teams play their very best and want to beat the champs knowing it might be their only chance to do so and it would be a highlight on the season schedule when it ends.

With the Knicks as the only legitimate Heat killers in the East don’t be surprised if you see the Heat in the finals this spring. The real question is if whether or not they could win against this year’s Western Conference champs who could be one of many dangerous teams all who have posed the Heat problems as of late.

It would be at that point the ‘Big 3’ will have to decide whether or not to bet on themselves or the team as a whole. The Clippers who are sitting at the top spot in the West have a bench that averages 39.5 points per game mirroring the East’s 1st place often criticized Heat bench that averages a respectable 36.8 points.

The truth is it still looks like a cake walk to the Finals for the Heat, but it might not be as easy for the Heat to hoist the trophy when it’s all said and done. With a bitter Thunder team, newly revamped Clippers, consistent Spurs and blue collar Grizzlies all dominating the West you can be sure they have their eyes on Miami.

Whether or not we are seeing it on our TV screens, blogs or magazines the target on the Miami Heat’s back will always be there and is always getting bigger.