Western Conf. Finals: Grizzlies vs Spurs

It has come down to this: the Memphis Grizzlies or the San Antonio Spurs are headed to the 2013 NBA finals. Whether advertisers are concerned about low ratings or conspiracy theorists believing the NBA matrix will somehow force the Miami Heat through to appease the masses is irrelevant. The bottom line is that everyone is in for some team basketball at its best. I’m in no way trying to downplay the leaders of either team which are comprised of champions, Finals MVPs, All-Stars and NBA award winners. I’m simply trying to highlight the fact that these teams continue to be successful without playing the now often preferred and very popular 'hero' type basketball.

The above may come off as me speaking as a bitter fan born in the 80s. Perhaps. Although I wouldn’t use the word bitter. I prefer the term nostalgic, as I am a fan of the tough team concept basketball I watched growing up as a kid. Believe me, witnessing Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Lebron James and Kevin Durant among other players have outstanding single performances is fantastic and is needed in all sports. I simply feel it unfairly sheds a light on individual success and overshadows what allows that success to exist. In the case of the Grizzlies and Spurs both the teams' stars are well known; not popular by mainstream standards, but extremely successful and the biggest threat to whichever team makes it out of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Numbers Don’t Lie:

The Grizzlies averaged 93.4 points which was 26th in the NBA this season. The Grizzlies beat both the Clippers who average 101.1 ppg at the 8th spot and the Thunder with 105.7ppg who owned 3rd place in the NBA scoring category. How did this happen you ask? Simple. The Grizzlies defence only allowed opponents to average 89.3 points per game in the regular season. Yes, you guessed it. They were 1st in the NBA in that category.

The Spurs are dangerous in their own right as they don’t sacrifice scoring for defence and rank high in both categories. Spurs were 9th in points allowed with 96.6 and 4th in scoring with 103. The Spurs swept the Lakers who ranked 6th in the NBA by scoring 102.2 points on their opponents and allowed them to score 101 for the 21st spot in the NBA. If you add the Warriors to the mix, who were 7th in scoring during the regular season, with 101.2 allowing 100.3 at the 19th spot, then it's clear why all of the above happened. Oh, I’m sure you saw this coming. Here it comes! Defence wins championships, or the very least, gives you the best chance at winning one.

“With our powers combined”:

We know that the Spurs have their own big three with Duncan, Parker and Ginobili, while the Grizzlies have a scary dynamic duo of their own in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. The key factor for both teams is often opposing defenders who keep forgetting to put pressure on lesser known players until it’s too late. So far in this post season, the Spurs have had five players averaging 10 or more points totaling 76.9 which is more than most teams can say. The Spurs' bench players refuse to ride the starters coattails scoring 31.1 points per game respectively with less than twenty minutes of playing time. Almost mirroring the Spurs, the Grizzlies have four players averaging double digits for a total of 66.7 points, with the bench chipping in with 39.7 in under twenty minutes as well.

Bottom Line:

Even with all the numbers in the world any player can get hot at any time just as they can get cold. As much as the “defence wins championships” is a beaten to death cliche, so is “key matchups”, and with the Grizzlies and Spurs so well balanced I’m guaranteed at least two more series of my preferred nostalgic, defensive, textbook basketball.

Game 1 R2: Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

With Round 2 of the 2013 NBA playoffs upon us I thought it might be fun to try and see what advantages certain teams have over their opponents and which ones could come out with a win. Don’t get me wrong, I have no plans of predicting the outcome of any series before a Game 1 tip-off, but will at least put my money where my mouth is on a per game basis.

Western Conference

Game 1:  Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Advantage Grizzlies: The biggest advantage that Memphis has going into today’s game happens to be what they do better than anyone else in the NBA, defense. The Celtics, Bulls and Heat are all rightfully praised for their outstanding defense, however it is the Memphis Grizzlies that are 1st overall in the NBA this season when it comes to points allowed with 89.3 per game.

A big part of that amazing defense rests on the shoulders of the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and partner in crime Zach Randolph. Together they average 15.5 rebounds and mirror that with 38.1 points. Let’s not forget their presence alone forces those who would consider going for layups to think twice about running into one of two brick walls. 

Expect Serge Ibaka who many felt was snubbed for the  Defensive Player of the Year award and Kendrick Perkins who made those feelings public, to get tangled up under the basket often as these four beasts try to mark their territory today for the rest of the series. These playground tussles might favor Memphis as the Thunder don’t often get bullied down under when playing their preferred fast paced style of basketball.

Advantage Thunder: One has to find this series interesting once you realize the Grizzlies are 1st in points allowed per game and the Thunder are 3rd in the NBA when it comes to points per game with 105.7. With the loss of Russell Westbrook many assumed the Thunder’s scoring would drop dramatically when in fact it has remained relatively the same at 105.8 during their series against the Houston Rockets. The majority of the scoring predictably came at the hands of 2 time scoring champion Kevin Durant and it’s something he can no doubt continue to do as long as he stays out of harms way.

Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are likely one of the toughest inside duos in the NBA and there is no doubt that Kendrick Perkins ability to never be intimidated and Serge Ibaka’s 8.3 rebounds and 3 blocks per game will be ready for battle. Other Thunder cast members such as James Harden’s replacement Kevin Martin, Thabo Sefalosa, Russell Westbrooks substitute Reggie Jackson and even Nick Collison who performs well while staying off the stats sheet will all have to fight through the fatigue left over from the Houston series and help Kevin Durant protect home court advantage. 

A motivating factor for Oklahoma besides keeping home court advantage should be the Grizzlies polar opposite rank of 27th in the NBA when it comes to points per game with 93.4, reminding Oklahoma although it’s not always the best or prettiest option, they can save their strength on the defensive end and simply try to outscore the Grizzlies.

Prediction: OKC wins Game 1

The Thunder were 34-7 at home this season, are known to feed off one of the best crowds in the NBA and have the best consistent pure scorer in the NBA with Kevin Durant. The Grizzlies may have been 24-17 on the road but are in no way interested in or intimidated by flash as they convincingly eliminated the Clippers and Lob City in 6 games. 

The Thunder have a lot more to prove in Game 1 after the world saw them struggle with what should have been a sweep against the Rockets and I expect them to have figured out a solid game plan that doesn’t involve Westbrook. The Oklahoma bench also tends to perform better than opposing benches and are all decent shooters in their own right who seem to always find themselves open for an easy jumper.

Miami Heat Check

The question everyone has been asking since the Miami Heat hoisted the trophy at the end of last season was ‘can they do it again’.

They have since added Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis to the team and left the remainder of the roster essentially untouched.

Lebron James is averaging 26 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists, Wade has 20 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists and Bosh is doing his part to share the load with 17 points and 7 rebounds. With the ‘Big 3’ rolling the Heat will go as far as they take them. Many still have the Heat as the sure fire bet to come out of the East and end up in the NBA Finals. It’s a pretty logical bet as long as they can get past the New York Knicks who are playing their best basketball in years lead by MVP candidate Carmelo Anthony.

With that being said, the playoffs and finals are months away and the Heat are currently 23-10 for the season. Out of 33 games only 7 of them were played against legitimate playoff contenders from both the Eastern and Western Conferences. Against those teams they went 4-3. To clarify my meaning of ‘playoff contenders’ I am referring to teams I truly believe could wind up NBA champions this year with either grind out, showtime, text book or fast break basketball along with a little bit of luck. The 7 games I am referring were those played against the Clippers (2), Knicks, Grizzlies, Spurs, Thunder and the Celtics. I added the Celtics more out of respect which I know I shouldn’t have, but should any upsets occur involving the Knicks or Heat the Celtics would be eagerly waiting to step in and take full advantage.

With the hype surrounding the team considerably less than it has been the last 2 years, fans may be upset about this but the Heat probably prefer it that way. With fewer nationally televised Heat games and the majority of TV time now going to the Clippers and Lakers many might forget how dangerous the Heat still are. Some might scratch their heads when the Heat lose to teams like the Wizards and Bucks but truth be told it would be a relatively easy playoff series to win should they meet in the playoffs and these losses should not be taken as signs of weakness. The issue with regular season games against lower ranked teams is that losing teams play their very best and want to beat the champs knowing it might be their only chance to do so and it would be a highlight on the season schedule when it ends.

With the Knicks as the only legitimate Heat killers in the East don’t be surprised if you see the Heat in the finals this spring. The real question is if whether or not they could win against this year’s Western Conference champs who could be one of many dangerous teams all who have posed the Heat problems as of late.

It would be at that point the ‘Big 3’ will have to decide whether or not to bet on themselves or the team as a whole. The Clippers who are sitting at the top spot in the West have a bench that averages 39.5 points per game mirroring the East’s 1st place often criticized Heat bench that averages a respectable 36.8 points.

The truth is it still looks like a cake walk to the Finals for the Heat, but it might not be as easy for the Heat to hoist the trophy when it’s all said and done. With a bitter Thunder team, newly revamped Clippers, consistent Spurs and blue collar Grizzlies all dominating the West you can be sure they have their eyes on Miami.

Whether or not we are seeing it on our TV screens, blogs or magazines the target on the Miami Heat’s back will always be there and is always getting bigger.