Game 1 R2: Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder

With Round 2 of the 2013 NBA playoffs upon us I thought it might be fun to try and see what advantages certain teams have over their opponents and which ones could come out with a win. Don’t get me wrong, I have no plans of predicting the outcome of any series before a Game 1 tip-off, but will at least put my money where my mouth is on a per game basis.

Western Conference

Game 1:  Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Advantage Grizzlies: The biggest advantage that Memphis has going into today’s game happens to be what they do better than anyone else in the NBA, defense. The Celtics, Bulls and Heat are all rightfully praised for their outstanding defense, however it is the Memphis Grizzlies that are 1st overall in the NBA this season when it comes to points allowed with 89.3 per game.

A big part of that amazing defense rests on the shoulders of the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and partner in crime Zach Randolph. Together they average 15.5 rebounds and mirror that with 38.1 points. Let’s not forget their presence alone forces those who would consider going for layups to think twice about running into one of two brick walls. 

Expect Serge Ibaka who many felt was snubbed for the  Defensive Player of the Year award and Kendrick Perkins who made those feelings public, to get tangled up under the basket often as these four beasts try to mark their territory today for the rest of the series. These playground tussles might favor Memphis as the Thunder don’t often get bullied down under when playing their preferred fast paced style of basketball.

Advantage Thunder: One has to find this series interesting once you realize the Grizzlies are 1st in points allowed per game and the Thunder are 3rd in the NBA when it comes to points per game with 105.7. With the loss of Russell Westbrook many assumed the Thunder’s scoring would drop dramatically when in fact it has remained relatively the same at 105.8 during their series against the Houston Rockets. The majority of the scoring predictably came at the hands of 2 time scoring champion Kevin Durant and it’s something he can no doubt continue to do as long as he stays out of harms way.

Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are likely one of the toughest inside duos in the NBA and there is no doubt that Kendrick Perkins ability to never be intimidated and Serge Ibaka’s 8.3 rebounds and 3 blocks per game will be ready for battle. Other Thunder cast members such as James Harden’s replacement Kevin Martin, Thabo Sefalosa, Russell Westbrooks substitute Reggie Jackson and even Nick Collison who performs well while staying off the stats sheet will all have to fight through the fatigue left over from the Houston series and help Kevin Durant protect home court advantage. 

A motivating factor for Oklahoma besides keeping home court advantage should be the Grizzlies polar opposite rank of 27th in the NBA when it comes to points per game with 93.4, reminding Oklahoma although it’s not always the best or prettiest option, they can save their strength on the defensive end and simply try to outscore the Grizzlies.

Prediction: OKC wins Game 1

The Thunder were 34-7 at home this season, are known to feed off one of the best crowds in the NBA and have the best consistent pure scorer in the NBA with Kevin Durant. The Grizzlies may have been 24-17 on the road but are in no way interested in or intimidated by flash as they convincingly eliminated the Clippers and Lob City in 6 games. 

The Thunder have a lot more to prove in Game 1 after the world saw them struggle with what should have been a sweep against the Rockets and I expect them to have figured out a solid game plan that doesn’t involve Westbrook. The Oklahoma bench also tends to perform better than opposing benches and are all decent shooters in their own right who seem to always find themselves open for an easy jumper.

Old Golden State Warriors News Rewrapped as New

Making preseason predictions is a major part of any sport and is also a big money maker. As summer winds down magazine racks are full of NBA, NFL, NHL and NCAA sports magazines printing everything from teams season records, championship contenders and finals MVPs before a single game has even been played.

I know being humble is an important personality trait but I suddenly feel the need to give myself a little bit of credit. I predicted Oklahoma City Thunder James Harden would win the 6th Man award after a preseason win against the Dallas Mavericks 5 days before the 2011-12 NBA season started.  
I followed up that comment a few months later with a post on my Addicted to Ballin' blog reiterating that prediction Prediction of 2012 NBA 6th Man of the Year: James Harden
In all fairness, that is old news.

By time you get around to reading this you will likely have already been bombarded with news about the Golden State Warriors beating the Miami Heat last night 97-95. You will also hear how well the Warriors are doing with a record of 15-7, sitting pretty in 2nd place in the Pacific Division and 5th overall in the Western Conference. Now before I get labelled as a bandwagoner for what some might consider false predictions or sudden epiphanies, I’m here to say in a nice way, “I told you so.”

I feel that if those of us who go out on a limb and carve predictions into the cement known as the internet can get raked over hot coals for being wrong, why not high-five ourselves for being right.

I had a strong feeling we would see an improved Klay Thompson this season who has scored 20 or more points 4 times in his last 7 games and 6 times in November pushing his season average from 12.5 ppg to 16.5 ppg. To be fair, assuming Bogut would be playing significant minutes might have been wishful thinking but I’m sure Andrew Bynum fans know the feeling. Although I love Monta Ellis’ game, he often needed the ball too much. With him leaving the Warriors they have performed exactly as expected. Link to full post on October 14, 2012: Hip Hoop Junkies

Even prior to making the Klay Thompson prediction, I picked the Golden State Warriors as my # 3 overall sleeper team to make a splash in 2012-13 NBA season. I foresaw them fighting for the 8th spot come playoff time and they are currently sitting in the 5th spot in the West. They exceeded my expectations but are still no surprise as they play very similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder, with great ball movement and balanced scoring. Link to full post on October 2, 2012: Addicted to Ballin'

Will this Golden State Warriors run last until the end of the season? I’ve been told they will burn out and come back to earth, and yes, I am well aware only ¼ of the season is complete. So maybe its too early to come out and say “I told you so.” With the media hype from last night’s Warriors win and on air personalities ignoring them at 14-7 then suddenly giving them praise at 15-7, I felt the need to say “Thank you but that ain’t news to me.”

Time to Talk New York Knicks

If there is one thing that has remained constant over the years in the NBA, it is the labels that certain teams are awarded at the start of the season or that are carried over from years prior.

Since Lebron took his talents to South Beach, the Heat have been ‘favored to win’. Since Kobe got back on track with Pau Gasol, the Lakers have always been ‘a team you should never count out’. The Spurs have been ‘old reliable’ for the last 5 years and the Nuggets are ‘a team on the rise.’ Last, but not least, we cannot forget new additions such as the ‘likely to come out of the West’ Thunder and the Derrick Rose led ‘Heat killer’ Chicago Bulls.

With all eyes on the 2012 Championship Heat and The Avengers, also known as the Lakers, little else has been talked about. Shame on all of us.

The only team that has been historically bombarded with attention whether expected to do well or not with no label ever sticking, are the New York Knicks.

We all know the stories that the Knicks and Madison Square Garden can conjure up even during a terrible season. We also know what types of headlines they can create with a successful one. To be fair, Carmelo Anthony and Amar’e Stoudamire are regulars on the All-Star Ballot; add to that last year’s Linsanity and everyone and their grandparents were talking about the Knicks. With a 2012 1st round playoff loss to the Heat, an injured Amar’e Stoudamire and a trade that sent Jeremy Lin to Houston, this season started with little hype outside the matchup with the NBA’s new darlings the Brooklyn Nets. Still, no label.

The number one story that we as basketball fans should be talking about to start this 2012-13 NBA season is the undefeated 6-0 New York Knicks. Beating the Heat by 20 points barely registered on the NBA Richter Scale. That win was followed up with a 16 and 22 point win in back to back games versus the 76ers. Again, not a blip on the radar. The Knicks didn’t mind one bit. They went on to beat the 2011 NBA Champions Dallas Mavericks by 10 points, took 3 days off and then did the same to the Orlando Magic. As if all that was not enough, they defeated the ‘old reliable’ San Antonio Spurs 104-100 last night in an impressive comeback victory.

With point averages like Carmelo’s 26, J.R. Smith’s 18, Raymond Felton’s 14 and Tyson Chandler’s 10, scoring has not been a problem. Throw in about 20 assists per game and 42% 3-point shooting, you have your answer as to why they are so good offensively. On the other hand, 30 of their 39 total rebounds per game are coming from the defensive end. Add to that an average of 9 steals and it paints a clear picture as to why only 1 team has come within 5 points when the buzzer goes off.

So what label should the Knicks get for starting the season so well and having the best record in the league? How about the ‘team with the best record in the NBA’ and leave it at that. I hate labels.

(Photo from streetball.com)