Game 4 R2: Spurs vs Warriors

With Round 2 of the 2013 NBA playoffs upon us I thought it might be fun to try and see what advantages teams have over their opponents and which ones could come out with a win. Don’t get me wrong, I have no plans of predicting the outcome of any series, but I will at least put my money where my mouth is on a per game basis.

Western Conference

Game 4: San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors

Advantage Spurs: Although Andrew Bogut has been able to play quality minutes replacing the injured David Lee, Tim Duncan is still one of the most unguardable Power Forwards in the NBA. Carl Landry has been able to hold his own in the paint to a certain extent, the problem is that the Spurs still have two more big bodies in Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw to throw at the Warriors who have no answer after that.

Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili are hands down one of the best backcourt duos in the NBA. Both extremely skilled at driving to the paint and scoring, kicking it out to the open man or taking perimeter jump shots. That versatility often leaves Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack on their heels often becoming victims of screens and picks, never quite sure of what to expect every time one of the two guards brings the ball up the court.

Coach Gregg Popovich knows his stars needs rest and this keeps his bench involved and experienced. A bench that is capable of protecting, increasing the lead and in some cases go on a scoring run is the key to success for any championship contender with its stars comprised of veterans. A full team commitment to defence and textbook basketball rounds of the long list of advantages the Spurs have over the Warriors.

Advantage Warriors: Let’s face it. The Warriors have been fun to watch all season and they have brought that type of uptempo high scoring basketball with them to the playoffs. The guard play of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jarrett Jack are making it difficult for the Spurs to keep up when they get hot from the outside, making them virtually unstoppable.

Harrison Barnes and Carl Landry are benefiting from forcing the Spurs’ Forwards and Centers to come out of the paint to defend them due to their mid range shooting, resulting in mismatches in favor of the Warriors’ guards. Unselfish play is also getting Golden State open shots and easy layups which all take place early in the shot clock not allowing the Spurs to get settled on defence.

The Warriors 3 point shooting is one of their greatest advantages as it can help them come back when down or build on a lead when they get hot and go on scoring runs late in games.

Prediction: Spurs win Game 4

Although fun to watch, it’s always hard for me to believe in a team littered with youth that plays fast pace basketball and choose to live and die by the 3 pointer during the playoffs. Whenever a team decides to play that style of basketball their wins are based on whether or not their shooters are hot on that particular night. 

Even though 6 Warriors scored in double digits compared to the Spurs’ 4 players in Game 3, the Warriors shot 39% to the Spurs 50% who won that game by 102-92. The Spurs are efficient, disciplined, defensive, methodical, experienced and more than happy to let the Warriors gamble on their outside scoring to win the series. The reason being of course, the odds are in the Spurs favor.

Old Golden State Warriors News Rewrapped as New

Making preseason predictions is a major part of any sport and is also a big money maker. As summer winds down magazine racks are full of NBA, NFL, NHL and NCAA sports magazines printing everything from teams season records, championship contenders and finals MVPs before a single game has even been played.

I know being humble is an important personality trait but I suddenly feel the need to give myself a little bit of credit. I predicted Oklahoma City Thunder James Harden would win the 6th Man award after a preseason win against the Dallas Mavericks 5 days before the 2011-12 NBA season started.  
I followed up that comment a few months later with a post on my Addicted to Ballin' blog reiterating that prediction Prediction of 2012 NBA 6th Man of the Year: James Harden
In all fairness, that is old news.

By time you get around to reading this you will likely have already been bombarded with news about the Golden State Warriors beating the Miami Heat last night 97-95. You will also hear how well the Warriors are doing with a record of 15-7, sitting pretty in 2nd place in the Pacific Division and 5th overall in the Western Conference. Now before I get labelled as a bandwagoner for what some might consider false predictions or sudden epiphanies, I’m here to say in a nice way, “I told you so.”

I feel that if those of us who go out on a limb and carve predictions into the cement known as the internet can get raked over hot coals for being wrong, why not high-five ourselves for being right.

I had a strong feeling we would see an improved Klay Thompson this season who has scored 20 or more points 4 times in his last 7 games and 6 times in November pushing his season average from 12.5 ppg to 16.5 ppg. To be fair, assuming Bogut would be playing significant minutes might have been wishful thinking but I’m sure Andrew Bynum fans know the feeling. Although I love Monta Ellis’ game, he often needed the ball too much. With him leaving the Warriors they have performed exactly as expected. Link to full post on October 14, 2012: Hip Hoop Junkies

Even prior to making the Klay Thompson prediction, I picked the Golden State Warriors as my # 3 overall sleeper team to make a splash in 2012-13 NBA season. I foresaw them fighting for the 8th spot come playoff time and they are currently sitting in the 5th spot in the West. They exceeded my expectations but are still no surprise as they play very similar to the Oklahoma City Thunder, with great ball movement and balanced scoring. Link to full post on October 2, 2012: Addicted to Ballin'

Will this Golden State Warriors run last until the end of the season? I’ve been told they will burn out and come back to earth, and yes, I am well aware only ¼ of the season is complete. So maybe its too early to come out and say “I told you so.” With the media hype from last night’s Warriors win and on air personalities ignoring them at 14-7 then suddenly giving them praise at 15-7, I felt the need to say “Thank you but that ain’t news to me.”